A "demographic time bomb" means that general practice in England is under threat in the long term, a report has warned.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/9255358/Ageing-population-time-bomb-endangering-GP-service.html

Quote:

There are factors that could ease the pressure, however

Euthanasia for one

Primary care "facing demographic time bomb"

http://www.pharmatimes.com/mobile/12-05-10/Primary_care_facing_demographic_time_bomb.aspx

Rising life expectancy, accompanied by increasingly complex long-term health conditions, a stretched general practice workforce and unprecedented financial and healthcare reform are among the greatest challenges facing primary care, says a new report.

The increasing age profile of GPs and practice nurses is creating a major primary care supply challenge, with 22% of GPs now aged over 55 - compared to 17% in 2000 - and almost 20% of practice nurses now aged 55 or over, says the study, which is published by the Deloitte UK Centre for Health Solutions.

Moreover, the study notes, 10,000 GPs say they intend to retire within five years, while increasing numbers of GPs are salaried or work part-time and there has been a growing reliance on practice nurses, many of whom are also approaching retirement.

Against expectations that an ageing UK population will have the greatest impact on demands on general practice, new entrants and returners to work in the primary care sector have fallen, says the report. Given the many years it takes to train GPs and general practice nurses, any immediate recruitment shortfalls can only be met by qualified practitioners from abroad. However, changes to employment regulations and agreements to limit recruitment from countries facing similar challenges means overseas hiring will not be a viable solution, and will only compound the strains on the GP workforce, it warns.

"Primary care, and in particular care provided by GPs and practice nurses, has been the cornerstone of the NHS since its inception in 1948," says Karen Taylor, research director at the Deloitte Centre.

"With responsibility for 90% of all patient contact in the NHS, GPs not only provide care, they also act as gatekeepers to the rest of the NHS. In future, GPs will also have a new role as commissioners of all the healthcare services needed by their patients. They will need to maintain their role as providers of safe, good-quality care in the face of this new commissioning challenge, new regulatory and performance management systems and a requirement to provide more care with less money,” she adds.

However, the report also forecasts that, if the pattern of GP consultations remains unchanged, there could be 433 million consultations a year in the UK by 2035. Of this number, 180 million would be for people aged 65 and over, or nearly double the current figure, it says.

The traditional ways of working, which rely on face-to-face consultations between the patient and the GP - and, increasingly, the practice nurse - are important but no longer sustainable, says Ms Taylor. In addition, rising life expectancy is bringing about increasingly complex long-term health issues requiring frequent GP visits.

"GPs need to adopt new models of care, using new technology and other practice staff more effectively, working closely with patients to provide more care in the community, with an emphasis on shared decision-making and self-management. GPs will still need to act as gatekeepers, but also, increasingly, as care navigators," she says.

"The Health and Social Care Act has provided more clarity as to what the reforms mean for general practice in England. New ways of working offer solutions that can help bridge the gap between increased demand for primary care and growing capacity and capability constraints. However, what they all have in common is the need for primary care staff to work differently," Ms Taylor concludes

UK austerity set to last decades as cost of ageing population rises

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/jul/12/uk-austerity-office-budget-responsibility

Community healthcare is no panacea

http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2012/sep/09/community-healthcare-no-panacea

Acute hospital care 'on brink of collapse' say doctors
Royal College of Physicians says there has been 37% rise in admissions over last 10 years and new hospital planning is needed

http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2012/sep/13/acute-hospital-care-brink-collapse-doctors

THE NHS has more than enough beds to cope with an increasing number of elderly patients turning to hospitals for emergency treatment, a minister claimed today.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/9540790/NHS-has-enough-beds-to-cope-minister-says.html

NHS is 'overcrowded and short-staffed'

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/health-news/nhs-is-overcrowded-and-shortstaffed-8134361.html

Only one in six ‘baby boomers’ is retiring in good health, with most succombing to a range of conditions and diseases including high cholesterol, osteoporosis or cancer, a study has found.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/9553116/Only-one-in-six-baby-boomers-in-good-health.html

Roll up, roll up for trust's circus-themed AGM
Liverpool Community Health NHS Trust decided on a more colourful approach for its AGM in a bid to boost participation

http://www.guardian.co.uk/healthcare-network/2012/oct/30/circus-themed-agm-liverpool-nhs

Elderly people 'staying at home for fear of falling' http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-20138731

Fears over health and loneliness of elderly this winter http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-20366309

THE Baby-boomer generation is facing an unexpected health crisis because the Government has failed to grasp that they will be far poorer than expected in old age, experts claim.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/elderhealth/9709308/Baby-boomers-facing-unseen-health-crisis.html

Archbishop’s last word: our view of elderly is a scandal
Rowan Williams uses final speech in House of Lords to decry society’s attitude to older people

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/archbishops-last-word-our-view-of-elderly-is-a-scandal-8418154.html

We're living longer than ever...but suffering more pain, depression and illness as a result

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-2248247/Were-living-longer--suffering-pain-depression-illness-result.html#ixzz2FA3IpDnT

Number of people aged 65 and older passes 10 million for first time, with over-85s the fastest growing section of society

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/number-of-people-aged-65-and-older-passes-10-million-for-first-time-with-over85s-the-fastest-growing-section-of-society-8422879.html

Men's cancer risk 'to climb to one in two' http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-20770922

Cancer expert admits ageism exists in NHS

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newsvideo/9757635/Cancer-expert-admits-ageism-exists-in-NHS.html

More than six million workers face paying hundreds of pounds more tax each year under the Coalition’s plans for a new flat-rate state pension, government sources have admitted.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/pensions/9797129/Millions-face-tax-rise-in-pensions-shake-up.html

Would you want to live to 100?
Remarkably, two in five girls born today will live for a century, and boys are close behind. But, asks Jeremy Laurance, is longevity all it's cracked up to be?

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/health-news/would-you-want-to-live-to-100-8462356.html

Francis report shows we have stopped listening to the needs of older people
We urgently need a comprehensive plan of action to transform how we deliver care to our oldest citizens

http://www.guardian.co.uk/healthcare-network/2013/feb/12/francis-report-stop-listening-older-people

Ageing population will have huge impact on social services, Lords told
Committee to report startling findings of wide-ranging investigation into over-65s and implications for British society

http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2013/feb/24/britain-ageing-population-lords-inquiry

UK woefully under-prepared for ageing society, say peers http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21773743

The Lords report is right – we must be responsible for our old age
Old age is now a fluid combination of costs and risks. A change in societal attitudes towards ageing, work and benefits is needed

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/mar/14/lords-report-responsible-old-age

The number of people aged over 90 has tripled in last 30 years, ONS figures show, with number of centenarians increasing five fold.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/9946573/Number-of-over-90s-has-tripled-in-30-years.html

Why 30 is really 45: We're so unhealthy that we're 15 years OLDER than our parents were at the same age

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-2307025/Why-30-new-45-Were-unhealthy-15-years-OLDER-parents-age.html#ixzz2Q6MEokNR

Pensions loophole lets 220,000 people living abroad claim a state pension despite NEVER having worked in the UK

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2320096/Pensions-loophole-lets-220-000-people-living-abroad-claim-state-pension-despite-NEVER-having-worked-UK.html#ixzz2SYHB5HHY

Anaesthetics could increase dementia risk by 35 per cent

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/10091439/Anaesthetics-could-increase-dementia-risk-by-35-per-cent.html

Are you as young as you feel or as old as you look?

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/health-news/are-you-as-young-as-you-feel-or-as-old-as-you-look-8669759.html

Over-40s health MOTs in question http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-23765083

Meet the 'super agers': The 80 and 90-year-olds with much younger brains and memories who could unlock the mystery of ageing

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-2400216/Meet-super-agers-80-90-yr-olds-unlock-mystery-ageing.html#ixzz2cmWnzZUJ

Shingles jab campaign for people in their 70s http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-23901636

Charities warn government over ageing population http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-24310029

Rise of the centenarians: Number of people over the age of 100 increases FIVE-FOLD in 30 years
In 1981 there were 2,420 people aged 100 or over in England and Wales
By 2012 the figure was 12,320, with 610 thought to be aged 105 or over
The number of people over the age of 90 has tripled since 1981 - they now make up nearly one per cent of the total population of England and Wales
There are estimated to be 2.6 women per man aged 90 and over and 5.9 women per man aged 100 and over


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-2435135/Rise-centenarians-Number-people-age-100-increases-FIVE-FOLD-30-years.html#ixzz2gH5Tk2p3

The case of a 20-year-old woman who stopped developing when she was four has given scientists hope of isolating the gene that caused her condition and of learning more about age-related illness

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/an-end-to-ageing-reallife-peter-pan-could-hold-clue-to-eternal-youth-8930946.html

Free friendship phone service for older people launched http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-25056351

Late starters' still have much to gain by exercising http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-25087047

Elderly malnutrition highlighted in government project

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-25463483

The over-55s who are in denial about their health: One in five say they are staying away from their GP

Six out of 10 over 55s admit to weight gain and joint problems
One in five is diagnosed with high blood pressure in their 40s
Many think they are healthier than they are and avoid doctors' surgeries


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2533620/The-55s-denial-health-One-five-say-staying-away-GP.html#ixzz2pcc0G86X

What's YOUR 'body age'? Average Briton's body is four years OLDER than its real age because of poor diet and lack of exercise

British Adults are, on average, four years and 37 days older, research by private medical insurer PruHealth with Vitality found
Bad habits - such as drinking, smoking, and binge eating - combine with stress to accelerate the body's natural ageing process


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-2540557/Whats-YOUR-body-age-Average-Britons-body-four-years-older-birth-date-poor-diet-lack-exercise.html#ixzz2qeYJEb00

Third of a million get cancer every year

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/health-news/third-of-a-million-get-cancer-every-year-9058671.html

Loneliness and periods of crisis 'affect many in UK' http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-25777617

Older cancer patients 'should not be written off' http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25873930

New NHS chief warns of the burden of an ageing population
The traditional way some NHS services are delivered "no longer makes much sense", Simon Stevens will say, as he warns that a massive "effort" is needed to relieve pressure on the organisation because of the growing elderly population.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/10735452/New-NHS-chief-warns-of-the-burden-of-an-ageing-population.html

Four lessons for the NHS on how to manage an ageing workforce
With plans to raise the state pension age to 70, the health service has to tackle a variety of challenges

http://www.theguardian.com/healthcare-network/2014/apr/15/managing-the-nhs-ageing-workforce

The 135 places in Britain where one in seven boys will not live to retirement
Official figures show how, despite rising life expectancy, in 135 towns and cities at least one in seven baby boys will not live to draw their pension

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/10779783/The-135-places-in-Britain-where-one-in-seven-boys-will-not-live-to-retirement.html

Retirement village life: A third way to face old age http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-27208531